Opinion polls show that the governor of California may have survived the recall attempt

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U.S. politics and policy updates

Prior to Tuesday’s removal election, California Governor Gavin Newsom (Gavin Newsom) is more likely to remain in office. A large number of Democrats voted early. Opinion polls show that most voters oppose efforts to remove him.

On Monday, when President Joe Biden appeared at an event in Long Beach, Newsom would get a boost again, demonstrating the importance to the White House that the largest U.S. state is still controlled by the Democratic Party. Vice President Kamala Harris and Senator Elizabeth Warren also ran for him.

Tuesday’s vote will end an unusual election, and the wealthy and ambitious first governor will compete with 46 challengers — including Republican politicians, YouTube stars, reality TV celebrities, and commercials Brand models and a few law enforcement officers. The state has paid more than $275 million for this, and even if Newsom wins, he will face re-election next year.

Recent polls show Newson Momentum has increased, with approximately 60% of possible voters saying they oppose his removal, which is an improvement from 50% in July. For most of the summer, he worried that the “enthusiasm gap” might reduce the Democratic turnout, and the number of Democrats in the state surpassed the Republicans by two to one.

In recent weeks, public sector unions and community groups have vigorously fought for votes to help close the gap. Steve Phillips, co-founder of the political organization PowerPAC+, said Newsom’s transformation was due to outreach work targeting Latinos, Asian Americans and other people of color in recent weeks.

“The risk is that people will not pay attention and the results,” he said. “I feel better than six weeks ago” about Newsom’s opportunity.

Larry Elder talks to supporters during the Yes Recall Asia Rally at the Little Saigon Asia Garden Shopping Center in Westminster, California © AFP via Getty Images

But the emergence of Larry Elder as the front runner to replace Newsom seems to have given the governor’s campaign the needed clarity. Elder is a conservative radio “shock athlete” who opposes abortion rights, supports the abolition of the minimum wage, and opposes wearing masks and vaccinations.

Newsom said last week that Republican Elder “celebrates” Texas’s recent abortion, This is an incentive issue for California Democrats. According to a Berkeley IGS poll, 65% of voters said that the election of a Republican governor would “threat” the state’s policies on issues such as climate change, immigration, health care, and abortion.

Newsom has been making Democrats worry that the recall might endanger their narrow control of the U.S. Senate. Elder has promised to do this and said that if the 88-year-old Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein (Dianne Feinstein) fails to complete her term, he will appoint a Republican to replace her.

“They are worried that I will replace her with a Republican, and I will definitely do it. It will be an earthquake in Washington, DC,” Elder said in a recent radio interview.

Although Newsom and California are facing a series of problems, including drought, wildfires, homelessness and the continuing impact of Covid-19, these problems have already inspired the Democratic base in the state. At the end of August, when the state began issuing new $600 stimulus checks to residents with annual incomes of less than $75,000, Newsom might help with the latter issue.

Newsom was elected in 2018 by an overwhelming 62% advantage over Republican businessman John Cox (he was also in the removal vote) and Newsom positioned himself as the leader of the anti-Trump “resistance movement”. A year ago, he had a high status in the state, when his approval rate was 64%. But since then, many people have been frustrated with the state’s Covid restrictions.

Republicans began seeking to recall Newsom almost immediately after he took office. They succeeded in raising enough signatures for a recall in the sixth attempt. This is the second time in California history that a governor has faced a recall election. Democrat Gray Davis lost to actor Arnold Schwarzenegger in the 2003 recall vote, who himself faced seven recall attempts during his two terms.

Although the poll data has improved, the risks Newsom faces still exist. California voted for Newsom to veto the recall with a majority vote, but if he fails, the candidate with the most votes will complete the remaining term. This means that his potential successor may defeat him with less approval ratings.

If he wins, the Democrats are expected to work hard to reform California’s 110-year-old recall system.

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