When Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called Fast election The question raised by most observers last month was whether his Liberal Party will win enough seats to become a majority in Parliament, or just increase the number of minority parties.
His government was praised for its handling of the coronavirus pandemic, injected billions of dollars into the economy, and received enough vaccine doses to vaccinate the entire population several times. Canada’s per capita vaccination rate is now one of the highest in the world.
But two weeks after the campaign, his Conservative competitor led the polls and was encouraged by a detailed policy platform that avoided the financial frugality of billions of dollars in new stimulus spending.Trudeau faces a likable opponent in Erin O’Toole, leader of the Conservative Party, competition from the left, and voters’ feelings about elections that many people consider unnecessary during the fourth wave of elections. Frustrated Pandemic, Just like their children go back to school.
Gerald Butts, vice chairman of the Eurasian Group and former senior executive, said: “I think the government called an election that few people wanted, and people now have more opinions on the election than the result. “Trudeau’s assistant.
“The government leads by two goals. It is now a side-by-side hockey game,” he added. “There is still a lot of hockey to play.”
According to the poll conducted by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation on the day of the election announcement, the Liberal Party has an insurmountable lead with a 54% chance of becoming the majority party.
CBC polls now show that the Conservative Party leads by 2.5 percentage points, and the Liberal Party is slightly ahead in terms of seat forecasts because they are ahead in Ontario and Quebec, two provinces with a large number of constituencies.
Many of the gains seem to be driven by the growing enthusiasm of the traditional Conservative Party’s foundation for O’Toole, who has remained largely unknown to Canadians since he was elected to the party’s leadership a year ago. Long-term voters are increasingly expressing support for the party.
“This has really changed the dynamics of this campaign. It looks like an event about whether the Liberal Party will get a majority. Now whether they can win the election is a question,” said Eric Grenier, who is in charge of the campaign. Éric Grenier) said. CBC’s vote tracker and write Writ, Newsletter about Canadian elections.
“The Conservative Party has successfully restored their foundation… They have made considerable progress on important battlefields.”
Most pollsters and analysts said that the results of the polls before Labor Day were unreliable, after which most Canadians began to pay close attention to the election campaign.
The first French-language debate between leaders is scheduled to take place on Thursday night, and there will be two more debates next week. The mood of voters may change significantly before the vote on September 20. But the momentum of the Conservative Party still changed the election narrative.
Trudeau launched his campaign, promising to “end the fight against the new crown virus” while touting his government’s pandemic record. But he also outlined key priorities for climate change, making it more affordable for young Canadians to buy houses, reforming public health care and childcare, and reconciling with indigenous communities. He said that he called the election because such a huge change during the economic recovery requires a new authorization.
However, the movement was eclipsed in the first few weeks due to the Afghan crisis and the efforts of the Western coalition to rescue the Afghans who worked with their troops there.
In addition, the Liberal Party did not issue a grand policy plan, but focused on attacking the Conservative Party, accusing the party of excessive right-wing behavior, including denying climate change and opposing the Covid vaccine authorization.
Although the Conservative Party released a detailed policy platform early in the campaign, the Liberal Party only released their policy platform on Wednesday. The 53-page document includes US$78 billion in expenditures and has invested heavily in a series of programs, including subsidies for companies to recruit new workers and climate change initiatives.
Trudeau also pledged to increase the corporate tax rate for banks and insurance companies from 15% to 18%, as revenue exceeds 1 billion Canadian dollars (796.7 million US dollars). He imposes a minimum tax on very wealthy people to fill tax loopholes, while condemning the Conservative Party for courting anti-vaccineists and climate change deniers.
Since the Conservative Party is seen as a strong contender in the election, they will face more severe doubts and attacks aimed at highlighting more radical elements within the party. But so far, with the help of an economic recovery plan that shows no signs of austerity, they have demonstrated an ability.
Shuvaloy Majumdar, a senior researcher at the think tank MacDonald-Laurier Institute, said: “I think the conservatives decided to put forward a comprehensive and detailed plan ahead of time, and they mentioned it repeatedly. “Former senior Conservative aide during Stephen Harper’s administration.
“I think this is a real advantage for them, showing that they have a serious, well-thought-out plan to govern the country, and that they are not approaching elections lightly.”
The changing fortunes of Trudeau, at least in the short term, have made many people wonder why he held the election in the first place and what he might need to win the election. With the support of the left-wing Socialist New Democratic Party, the leaders of the Liberal Party are able to govern effectively, and occasionally there is support from the Conservative Party across the aisle. Few people weigh which leader to vote for when they are worried about the outbreak of the new crown virus in the school. people.
Under attack from both sides of the political spectrum, he may have no choice but to refocus his information on the issue that has supported his approval ratings in the past year and a half—his response to the pandemic.
“Everyone always asks:’What is the voting question?’ In many elections, there is no valid question. But I think this is a problem for the vast majority of people, especially when the number of cases starts to rise again. , The effective question is who can get us out of this nightmare and let me resume some normal life?” Trudeau’s former senior assistant Bartz said.
“The way to get voters to gain a foothold is to focus on this core issue.”