Sunny floods are about to become a nuisance


In summer In 2017, the tides in Honolulu rose to record highs time and time again, higher than any time during the 112-year record. Philip Thompson, director of the Sea Level Center at the University of Hawaii, wanted to know why. “Where did this come from?” he asked. “How often does this happen? Is this our window to the future?”

what Thompson And a group of researchers found that the future has arrived. The summer of 2017 was a glimpse of the watery reality of Honolulu and other coastal communities. Research, Published in June this year Natural climate change, The discovery that higher and more frequent tides will reach an inflection point in the 2030s, especially on islands such as the west coast and Hawaii, makes it marked as “Nuisance flood” Common.

Thompson said: “Many areas of the East Coast have been repeatedly affected. In the mid-2030s, these other areas will quickly catch up.” Therefore, this is a transition from the East Coast region to a national problem, and most of the country’s coastline is regularly affected. The impact of high tide floods. “

How regular is it? The study includes researchers from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and shows that sunny floods will gather in the fall, bringing nightmares to cities and businesses. Streets will be impassable, cars in parking lots will be damaged, and rainwater systems will become strained.In addition, tidal floods can also pollute local waterways, pollute pollutants including oil, gasoline, trace metals and nitrogen, and produce algae blooms, causing Hypoxia dead zone.

Thompson pointed out that climax floods are subtle and cause thousands of damage to a community—or, in this case, going to work or buying groceries for dozens of days a year becomes troublesome or even impossible. “If it happens 10 or 15 times in a month, it will become a problem,” he added. “Businesses cannot continue to operate in underwater parking lots. People lose their jobs because they can’t get to work. These effects will really accumulate quickly.”

This research adds to the growing research on the variables that drive higher and higher tides. Like sea level rise, high tide floods vary from place to place. Factors that increase sunny flooding include local land subsidence, the impact of El Niño, the slowdown of the Gulf Stream along the Atlantic Ocean, water temperature and ocean eddies.

Although the role of the moon’s so-called “swing” in flooding has made headlines, this is nothing new, and the label is misleading.Moon is Not shake; Its angle relative to the earth’s equator will change slightly as it orbits. This was first reported in 1728. This cycle takes 18.6 years. Half of the time it suppresses the tide, the other half of the time it amplifies the tide. This effect is particularly strong in places where a single high tide or a dominant high tide occurs in a day, such as most areas of the West Coast.

Although the angle of the moon is now magnifying the tides, in some places, sea level rise is not enough to exceed the flood threshold. The study concluded that this will change in the next cycle of the 2030s. Those higher sea levels plus another lunar cycle will drive a nationwide high tide flooding, starting with what Thompson and researchers call a “turning year of a year.”

Due to local variables, these years will vary from place to place. This means that La Jolla may have 15 days of high tide flooding in 2023, 16 days in 2033, and 65 days in 2043. In Honolulu, they expect two days of flooding in 2033 and 65 days in 2043. In St. Petersburg, Florida, the jump is from 7 days in 2023 to 13 days in 2033, and then to 80 days in 2043.


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