Scientists warn of increasing frequency of extreme weather events


Climate change update

According to a study of this disaster by leading meteorologists, as climate change warms the planet, extreme rainfall (such as those after the devastating floods in Germany and Belgium last month) will become more frequent and more frequent. strong.

An international expert group’s World Weather Attribution Initiative’s research has shown that unprecedented rainfall has caused More than 200 people Compared with the pre-industrial era, the probability of occurrence in Germany and Belgium today is 1.2 to 9 times higher.

The study added that climate change has increased rainfall in the region by 3-19% in a day. The scope of both assessments is the result of limited historical data and the inherent uncertainty of computer modeling.

“These floods show us that even developed countries are not immune from the severe impact of the extreme weather we have seen. [which will] As climate change gets worse,” said Frederick Otto, one of the authors of the study and deputy director of the Institute of Environmental Change at Oxford University.

The impact of human-driven climate change is becoming more and more obvious. Europe set the hottest temperature in history this month. The temperature in Italy reached 48.8 degrees Celsius. Wildfires swept across the Mediterranean. From Turkey to Spain, floods caused severe damage in parts of northern Europe.

Flooding in Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg followed by a heavy downpour. The area around the Ahr and Erft rivers received more than 90 mm of rainfall, which was the largest single-day rainfall in the region.

Martin Van Alster, director of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Climate Center and another author of the study, said climate change is “increasing” the risk of such extreme weather. “If anything, we expect that the probability of this happening next year will be higher than this year. We can expect this to happen again.”

WWA research follows Landmark UN report This month highlighted the possibility of 1.5C warming by 2040. It concluded that extreme weather events, such as floods in Europe, will become more frequent and intense with every fraction of the warming.

WWA said on Tuesday that if warming reaches 2 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels, the likelihood and intensity of extreme rainfall events in Western Europe will further increase.

Last month, the WWA initiative surprisingly announced that without man-made climate change, the North American heat wave this summer would be “nearly impossible”.

WWA’s survey results are based on historical weather records and computer simulations, comparing today’s climate with past climates. The greenhouse gases emitted by human activities have led to an increase in the global average temperature.

Because rainfall may be localized and vary by location and year, the scientists analyzed data from the European region, which is larger than the area hit by the flood in July.

So-called “Attribution Science”Linking individual extreme events to climate change has become more and more popular in recent years because computer models have made such studies more accurate, and policymakers have called for information to help them prepare for the future.

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