Poland’s weakened coalition improves prospects for early elections

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Polish update

A year ago, Pawel Kukiz promised to “do everything I can” to save the country from Poland’s unfree de facto leader, Jaroslaw Kaczynski.

But as an increasingly unpredictable sign that plagued Polish politics, Kukiz saved Kaczynski last week.During the turbulent parliamentary meeting, a group led by a fickle Rock star turned politician Provided key votes to Kaczynski’s Law and Justice Party (PiS) to promote the adoption of Controversial bill This may force the sale of TVN, the main Polish independent broadcaster.

The proposed media law-widely regarded as an attempt to frighten the US News Corporation, whose critical coverage has long angered PiS-has drew criticism from the European Union and the United States and added multiple pressures on Poland’s most important relationship with Poland. International allies.

However, the consequences of disputes over these changes — which have not yet been approved by the Polish Senate and President — may also lead to periods of greater domestic instability.

Just a few hours before the vote, the agreement of one of PiS’s two junior alliance partners clashed with PiS on a number of issues including media law and withdrew from the conservative nationalist alliance that has ruled Poland for nearly six years.

The withdrawal of the agreement caused the remaining PiS coalitions to lose their formal parliamentary majority and increased the possibility that the government would have to win individual members from other groups or independents by vote to pass legislation.

“The political arrangement we are pursuing [Agreement’s] The departure is very unstable,” said Wawrzyniec Smoczynski, director of the Social Sciences Program at SWPS University in Warsaw. “Sooner or later, it opens the way for early elections. The question is what makes Kaczynski decide that he can no longer be in power and must vote. “

A big unknown is whether Kukiz will become a lasting ally of PiS. The former punk musician became famous in a band called “The Breasts”. He entered politics as an anti-system figure. Few people regard his support for PiS as the basis for a stable government.

“The reason he entered politics is to break the current political system. But I won’t say that he has been pursuing this goal,” Smoczynski said. “The more important factor here is Kaczynski himself. Kaczynski is using Kukiz, and Kukiz realizes that he is being used. The question is when will he discover too much.”

However, PiS can also try to win votes from other groups. Confederation is an eclectic organization composed of nationalists, Eurosceptics, and liberals, which overlaps with PiS on certain issues. PiS may also try to win back as many agreement members as possible. The leader of the agreement, Jaroslaw Gowin, said last week that his MPs have received proposals, including ministerial positions or opportunities to provide funds directly to specific local governments, to maintain an alliance with PiS. Kaczynski denied this in parliamentary debates.

“The era when PiS can rule freely is over. I can imagine that even with very controversial laws, they still have the ability[of building a majority]… They can cooperate with the left, some with the Federation,” said Anna Materska-Sosnowska, a political scientist at the University of Warsaw. “But this is not efficiency.”

The key test of whether PiS can establish a majority will come in September, when the struggle for the TVN bill will restart, and PiS will try to “pass legislation” for it.Polish transaction“, a series of tax and expenditure commitments, officials believe that these commitments are vital to their future election opportunities.

In the past year, in such as Tighten Poland has strict abortion laws and widespread resistance to political powers in multiple countries during the pandemic.Opinion polls show that if elections are held now, PiS will receive About 33% Vote. Even if it is allied with the Federation, it may be difficult to establish a majority in parliament.

For this reason, most analysts believe that PiS at least hopes to avoid this year’s election. However, Aleks Szczerbiak, a professor of political science at the University of Sussex in the United Kingdom, said that if PiS is in a “management rather than management” position, then Kaczynski may decide to risk voting in 2023 before the vote expires.

Szczerbiak said: “PiS really has to win two sets of votes, otherwise they are really in trouble, and early elections have indeed begun to enter the framework.”

“One is a key element of the PiS legislative plan, namely[Polish Deal]… The other set of votes they must win is about personnel. If they are likely to start to lose their votes of confidence in the minister, then the problem starts to become very tricky. “

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