German election opens as Merkel’s successor loses lead in opinion polls


German update

It is only a month before voters determine the successor to Chancellor Angela Merkel. Her party has lost what seemed almost certain to victory, broke the German election, and increased the government’s leadership by the center-left Social Democratic Party. Chance.

Merkel’s center-right Christian Democratic candidate, Armin Laschet, is now under pressure to step up his campaign and prevent the party’s worst election result in 70 years.

German observers also considered for the first time in this campaign not only the possibility of forming a left-leaning coalition, but also the establishment of a government that completely excludes the CDU.

What is disturbing is that the Social Democratic Party leads the polls for the first time in 15 years.Newest Fossa Polls Compared with 22% of CDU, SPD is 23%. In the gaming market, the probability that the SPD will lead the next government after voting on September 26 is 50-50.

“The most striking thing here is the weakness of the CDU, not the relative success of the Social Democratic Party,” said Peter Matuschek, chief political analyst at Forsa, a polling organization, noting that since the last time Since the Bundestag election, the rating of the CDU has dropped by approximately 10%. “When you look at these numbers, 23% of the Social Democratic Party would not be a good result in previous elections.”

The Social Democratic Party’s current poll rating is only three percentage points higher than its historically sluggish turnout in the last federal election, when it became a junior partner of the CDU.

The shrinking competition means that for the first time in post-war history, Germany may move towards a three-way alliance. Although the Green Party has been ranked third in public opinion polls, it is very likely to enter the government. At the same time, the pro-commercial Liberal Democratic Party, ranked fourth in the polls, may play the king role in the CDU-Green-Liberal Democratic Party alliance or the Social Democratic Party-Green-Liberal Democratic Party alliance.

“I admit that a few weeks ago, I would have higher goals,” Markus Söder, the head of the Christian Social Alliance, the sister party of the CDU in Bavaria, said in a Bloomberg webinar on Tuesday. “This is becoming more and more difficult-and, I have to admit, it is not entirely realistic.”

The Social Democratic Party is getting help Surge Its candidate Olaf Scholz (Olaf Scholz) has a support rate of 35%.

As Merkel’s finance minister, he steered the economy in a pandemic and has more government experience than the governor of Germany’s largest state (11% approval rate in polls) or Green Party candidates Annalena Balbok, 15%.

However, the most popular candidate for prime minister has always been “none”, accounting for about 44%.

A poster in Berlin showing the candidates of the Green Party and the Social Democratic Party. Germany may move towards a tripartite alliance © Sean Gallup/Getty

Merkel tried to play down the apparent changes in the fortunes of her party. “We will strive for a good result every day, and we will not be watching public opinion polls every day,” she said on Tuesday.

Raschelt’s campaign has been lacklustre. He also stumbled during the July flood, when he was laughing on TV, while the German President gave a gloomy speech to flood victims, which killed more than 180 people.

The sharp internal disagreements that have reappeared within the center-right are also of no avail. Sodd initially sought to run for the election, but despite his popularity, he was rejected by the CDU leaders.Siwei polling According to news released on Wednesday, 70% of CDU-CSU supporters still want Sodd to replace Raschelt-he has ruled out this option.

Söder has now joined Laschet’s offensive, warning that the SPD-led government will bring “cruel debts.” In a speech at the German Institute of Economic Research on Tuesday, Raschelt warned that the Green Party and the Social Democratic Party are putting climate change policy above employment and are threatening “social peace.”

Other CDU leaders said that such attacks were not enough to explain to voters the party’s position after Merkel.

“We need to hit […] Reset button,” said Michael Kretschmer, Chancellor of Saxony of the CDU. “The German election campaign is going well. “


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