Afghanistan is now part of the post-American world


Afghanistan Update

This The fall of Kabul The Taliban-20 years after being expelled-will end American influence in Afghanistan, which may last for decades. In this sense, it can be compared with the overthrow of the Iranian king in 1979, the fall of Saigon in 1975, or the Cuban revolution in 1959.

With the withdrawal of the United States, the Taliban will seek to establish relationships with a range of other players including China, Pakistan and the Gulf countries.The new ruler of Afghanistan seems to be eager Internationally recognized, And the resulting trade and aid. This desire may persuade the Taliban to ease their urge to become more fanatical.

The treatment of Afghan women and defeated enemies of the Taliban will receive special close attention abroad.Some spokespersons of the organization said Suggest Unlike the first time in power, the Taliban will allow women to work and receive education. But many Afghan women currently participating in politics and civil society are deeply skeptical.

Foreign governments are not the only international audience who may be interested in the Taliban. The fact that the violent Islamic movement succeeded in defeating the United States will push jihadists around the world who may now turn to Taliban-led Afghanistan for guidance and inspiration.

John Allen, former US and Allied commander in Afghanistan, now expected Al-Qaeda “openly operated from the Hindu Kush Mountains under the circumstances of the withdrawal of US troops.” The Biden administration has said that if this happens, it will fight back. But General Allen pointed out that in the absence of reliable ground controllers, Afghanistan’s counter-terrorism operations are “very challenging tasks.”

Afghanistan too boundary China, Iran, Pakistan and Central Asia are close neighbors of India. All these countries fear that violence inspired by the Taliban might spread.

India will face more trouble in Jammu and Kashmir, its only Muslim-majority province. China has reason to worry that Uyghurs fighting against Beijing’s repression in Xinjiang may find a base in Afghanistan. Iran will be happy to see the United States defeated, but it will worry about the fate of the Shiite minority Hazaras who are viciously persecuted by the Taliban.all Neighbouring countries of Afghanistan The EU will prepare for the influx of refugees.

The neighbouring country in the most ambiguous and dangerous situation is Pakistan. For decades, the Islamabad government—especially the Tri-Service Intelligence Service, Pakistan’s intelligence agency—has been providing a safe haven for the Taliban. This policy was partially denied and partially justified on the grounds that Pakistan needs “strategic depth”-which means preventing Afghanistan from falling under Indian control. The influence of hardline Islamists in Pakistan also helps to create a tolerant environment for the Taliban.

Islamabad’s acquiescence to violent Islamism in Afghanistan even survived the atrocities that took place on Pakistani territory – for example massacre In a school in Peshawar in 2014, the Pakistani Taliban killed approximately 150 people, including 132 children.

The Pakistani government continues to claim that it uses the “maximum leverage” to try to force the Taliban to negotiate. But people generally don’t believe it. A senior Afghan official recently complained to me-“My meetings with Pakistanis have never been bad. They just never keep their promises.”

However, the Taliban’s takeover of neighboring Afghanistan is also dangerous for Pakistan. The domestic jihadists will act boldly because of victory. The 1,600-mile border between the two countries is traditionally full of loopholes.The Pakistani Taliban seems to have Resuscitating — Claimed responsibility for 26 terrorist attacks in Pakistan last month, including Suicide bombing Caused the death of 9 Chinese workers. Secular Pakistani officials may also be targeted.

All countries bordering Afghanistan eagerly hope that the Taliban will learn some lessons from the last ruling period from 1996 to 2001 and that they will not allow their country to become a base for international jihadist organizations again.

If the Taliban does not try to export violent Islamic fundamentalism, its power in Kabul is likely to be a welcome development for China. The Chinese government’s foreign policy creed is based on the principle of “non-interference”-which essentially means that as long as the Taliban respects China’s “core interests”, Beijing will not take any position on the domestic political system or human rights issues in Afghanistan.

China has expressed its willingness to cooperate with the Taliban through a recent high profile. Meeting Between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar of the Taliban. The significance of this meeting lies not only in its convening, but also in the propaganda that Beijing deems appropriate.

If China can establish a working relationship with the Afghan Taliban-led government, it will provide Beijing with economic benefits—for example, it is possible to establish a nationwide transit corridor to the Pakistani port of Gwadar, built by China.

Strategically, China is also willing to have the opportunity to pressure India to increase Delhi’s fear of being surrounded. Most importantly, Beijing will welcome further evidence of the imminent arrival of the post-American world.

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